Latest forecast: Snow Tuesday, then rain Wednesday

The dire warnings of a major snow storm this week in the Seattle area have become less severe.

Forecasts issued early Monday morning say the Seattle area will likely get snow beginning Tuesday afternoon and continuing into the night. Perhaps 1 to 4 inches will fall.

But rain on Wednesday will wash that snow away.

Still, just how messy your Wednesday morning commute will depend on how quickly warm, wet air moves north in Western Washington.

The National Weather Service says rain will likely arrive in the Seattle area in time for the morning commute.

Areas north of Seattle can expect rain later. The snow may stick around until Wednesday afternoon near Bellingham.

The Cascades can expect heavy snow -- perhaps 1 to 2 feet of new snow by Wednesday morning.

For now, the forecast calls for snow after 4 p.m. on Tuesday, when the high temperature ought to reach 37 degrees in Seattle. Don't expect much snow to fall during the day.

The chance of snow will increase Tuesday night, when up to 4 inches ought to fall in the Seattle area. The low Tuesday night will be around freezing.

Wednesday will be warmer and wet: temperatures in the 40s and a 90 percent chance of rain. The temperature will likely stay above freezing through the rest of the week.

What's afoot is that storm systems are coming in from the Pacific to Western Washington, where temperatures will remain low. Monday night, for example, the low temperature is expected to be 26 degrees.

Forecasters now say the low-pressure system will go farther north than first thought, bringing warmer temperatures and rain more quickly to the Seattle area.

University of Washington meteorologist Cliff Mass agrees with the National Weather Service.

"It is clear now that the trend of several of the forecast models is to bring the low and the associated warm air farther north and to move things in earlier. Yes, we might get some light initial snow but right now it looks like it will rapidly turn to rain near sea level," Mass wrote in his weather blog.

"The issue with overrunning snow events is that many are associated with low centers and associated fronts. If the low goes too far south, you stay cold and dry. (meteorologists hate that!). If it goes north of us, we are warm, wet and often windy. To get massive snow, the low needs to go south of us, close enough to give us the precipitation but far enough to keep the warmest air at bay. And the low south of us helps pull nice cold BC air into the region. When this sets up right you can get HUGE snowstorms, but everything has to be perfect."

Perfection, apparently, will not be in our forecast.

Monday, meanwhile, will be dry, cool and sunny with a high temperature of 38 degrees.