Dolphins at Patriots

When the Patriots run
It’s a crap shoot as to who plays today and how much, but if the Patriots treat this as an exhibition game, it’s likely the starters will at least make cameos. That means hard-charging BenJarvus Green-Ellis will get some carries. A durable, north-south plugger, Green-Ellis has surprised many with his deceptive quickness and toughness. He has good vision, patience, and pop and hasn’t had to carry the load alone, meaning his legs should be fresh for the playoff run. Danny Woodhead provides an excellent change of pace with his exceptional vision, instincts, and first-step quickness. Woodhead’s size and shiftiness make it tough for opponents to land direct body blows. It’s last call for Fred Taylor (the banged-up veteran still has great stop-and-start skills) and Thomas Clayton (he has shown flashes of strength and speed). They’ll be running behind an offensive line that’ll be a mix of starters and backups. If Logan Mankins (the toughest and nastiest guard in the universe) plays more than a handful of snaps, it’ll be a travesty. Dolphin nose tackle Paul Soliai (6 feet 4 inches, 355 pounds) eats space and chews up blockers. Linebacker Channing Crowder, who has great physical skills but has trouble controlling his emotions, is a solid run stopper.
Edge: Dolphins

When the Patriots pass
Better be on your couch at 1 p.m. if you want to see a glimpse of Tom Brady today. The once and future MVP likely won’t play more than a series. Brady will give way to Brian Hoyer early on. Hoyer has limited pro experience but played in a pro-style offense at Michigan State and excels in the short-passing game. Hoyer was known in Big Ten circles as tough, smart, and coachable. He’s a student of the game and doesn’t mind watching film. Sounds like Bill Belichick’s kind of guy, no? Hoyer may get to work with some first-stringers. Wes Welker (would you play him?) and Deion Branch (rest him, too) won’t be factors. Brandon Tate (great speed and field awareness) and Julian Edelman (great quickness and moves but suspect hands) will get plenty of attention. Might we see third-round pick Taylor Price make his debut today? Tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski will have to play. Miami corners Vontae Davis (he has the power to play press and the speed to turn and cover) and Sean Smith (he has good ball skills) are solid. Safeties Yeremiah Bell (a big hitter) and Chris Clemons (he’s athletic and strong) provide good support.
Edge: Patriots

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When the Dolphins run
Ronnie Brown is no longer the beastly, 25-carry, 100-yard back of a few seasons ago. That being said, he’s still has tools to be a productive runner. He has decent speed and vision and can still turn the corner and go — just not as consistently as in the past. Brown will break through arm tacklers and can deflect and absorb hits and still make yards. He excels out of the Wildcat and throws a decent ball. Ricky Williams (did he find the fountain of youth?) is still racking up carries and yards. Williams has lost a step or two, but still has elite vision and finishes off his runs by lowering his shoulder and delivering punishment. He was a workhorse for years but the Dolphins have kept him healthy and fresh the past few seasons by cutting down his touches. The Dolphins have a strong left side with massive tackle Jake Long (6 feet 7 inches, 317 pounds) and surly guard Richie Incognito (6-3, 324). Long has the strength to take on defenders and push them backward into submission. He has battled myriad injuries but still performs at a Pro Bowl level. With Pro Bowl run-stuffers Vince Wilfork and Jerod Mayo likely seeing limited action, look for Ron Brace (impressive bulk) and Gary Guyton (superior athleticism) to step up and make plays