Bears (6-3) at Dolphins (5-4)
Thursday, 8:20 p.m
Line: Dolphins by 1 1/2
The Bears are 3-2 at home, 3-1 on the road and 4-0 against teams in complete disarray.
Almost every Bears opponent this season has been mired in a quarterback controversy, internal strife, a major injury crisis, or all three. The Bears beat the Cowboys early in their drama of self-sabotage, caught the Panthers in the middle of their quarterback square dance, and defeated the Vikings, poster children for mismanagement. Even the Bears’ “normal” wins are abnormal: they beat the Bills in Canada and needed a vintage N.F.L. officiating technicality to overcome the Lions.
Now, they face third-string quarterback Tyler Thigpen, but they may be in for a surprise. If there’s such a thing as the ideal skill-set for a third-string quarterback, Thigpen has it. He has a 1-10 career record as a starter, but his statistics aren’t bad (20 touchdowns, 16 interceptions), and Thigpen is a scrambler and ball distributor who thrives in chaos. Having attended Coastal Carolina and quarterbacked the Chiefs, he has never played for a good team, so he is accustomed to spraying the ball to bad receivers, running for his life, executing oddball strategies and hoping for the best.
The Dolphins have a history of surprising the Bears on prime time television – see 1985 – and the Bears are not nearly as good as their record. The Bears may be a playoff team -– championship runs are often built on the remains of overmatched opponents -– but the Dolphins are favorites for a reason.
PICK: Dolphins.